5 Key Congressional Races to Watch on Election Night

UMD Political Scientist Says Control of Both Chambers Will Be a ‘Nailbiter’

When Election Day dawns on Tuesday, more than just control of the White House will be balancing on a razor’s edge. The Senate, where Democrats hold a one-vote majority, could flip. The Republican-led House of Representatives, meanwhile, would switch control if Democrats net just five seats.

“The extraordinarily close race at the top of the ticket will permeate downballot,” said Kris Miler, a University of Maryland associate professor of government and politics and expert on congressional representation. “Combine that with the narrow majorities in both chambers, and congressional control is going to be a nailbiter.”

In the Senate, local eyes are on Maryland’s open seat, competitive for the first time in decades, where former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, are facing off. Hogan, a moderate who’s worked to distance himself from former President Donald Trump, is casting himself as a unifier as he tries to narrow Alsobrooks’ double-digit lead in recent polls. She, meanwhile, argues that a Hogan win could guarantee a Republican-controlled Senate.

“In a year with a lot of attention to abortion rights and the large gender gap in the presidential polls, the Maryland Senate race is also notable because as a Black woman, Alsobrooks would join a currently all-male Maryland congressional delegation, and she would be a historic first for a senator from the state,” Miler said.

In the Senate, 23 Democratic incumbents are defending their seats compared to just 11 Republicans—a lucky break for the GOP, Miler said. In the House, she counts 26 tossup contests, many in districts won by then-candidate Joe Biden in 2020 that are currently represented by Republicans.

Miler spoke with Maryland Today about the dynamics of five tight contests to watch.

Photo is by iStock

Published on Fri, Nov 1, 2024 - 1:57PM