GVPT Grad Student Conducts War-Zone Survey in Syria

Data Offers Civilian, Rebel Views on Peace, Western Intervention and the Future

Vera Mironova, a Ph.D. candidate studying political science at UMD, Sam Whitt, a professor at High Point University, and Loubna Mrie gathered valuable survey responses in Syria on topics ranging from desire for democracy, attitudes toward Western intervention in the conflict, support for the rebel groups and rebel causes, willingness to negotiate for peace, and prospects for Syrian unity after the war. The researchers administered the survey in person to both Syrian civilians and Free Syrian Army (FSA) soldiers in the rebel controlled territories including frontlines of Aleppo and Idlib.

“We hope that this original survey offer scholars, journalists, and policymakers a glimpse of the views and opinions of Syrian civilians and rebel soldiers on these critical topics. We faced many challenges in the process of collecting these data, but we hope that our efforts will provide insights into civilian and combatant views and preferences in real-time as conflict is still unfolding,”  Mironova said.

Among the survey’s key findings:
 

Attitudes toward Rebel Organizations and the Government

·        78% of civilian respondents expressed confidence in the FSA to keep them safe

·        But only 57% of civilians feel personally close to fighters in the FSA

·        And only 39% feel close to foreign fighters

“This may help explain the apparent splintering of support between the FSA and other emerging groups – civilians are looking to any group or organization to protect them, but are not firmly and clearly identifying with one group over others,” Mironova said.

Attitudes toward the West and Western Intervention

·        24% of respondents have favorable views of the United States

·        25% have favorable views of NATO

·        56% would welcome U.S.-led intervention; 59% would welcome NATO-led intervention

“When the United States did not intervene, Syrians became disappointed, and felt that because major powers are not coming to protect them, they have to rely on themselves,” Mironova said.

Attitudes toward Ending the War and Establishing a Democracy

·        32% of respondents said democracy is preferable to any other form of political system

·        53% said that under some circumstances, a non-democratic government may be preferable

“Syrians who joined the conflict at the beginning still believe in the cause and want democracy, while others, after three years of fighting, got tired and would accept any government that will bring stability,” Mironova said.

Ending the War

·        88% of FSA members would rather keep fighting than negotiate with current government leaders

·        60% of FSA members consider military victory their top priority among foreseeable options

·        58% of civilians would rather keep fighting than negotiate with current government leaders

·        54% of civilians would support an immediate ceasefire to facilitate negotiations

“A disconnect between civilian and rebel views on the path forward could explain some of the mixed support for the FSA in our sample. Though civilians rely on the FSA for safety and security, their preferences do not clearly align with the broad goals of FSA rebels. This could lead to mounting civil-military tensions over a possible negotiated settlement to the war,” Mironova said. “Even if civilians would be willing to bargain for peace, our data suggest that they would face strong opposition from many rebel fighters who are more committed to the cause of victory and perhaps vengeance.”

Respondent Views on Syria’s Future

·        76% of civilians and 80% of rebel soldiers believe Syria must remain a unified state

·        54% of all respondents agree that all Syrians are capable of living together in a common state

“Despite the horrific violence of the war, all is not lost in Syria. On a societal level, many Syrians appear capable of reconciling across war-time divisions,” Mironova said.

For more information, visit http://vmironova.net/voices-of-aleppo.

Published on Fri, Mar 28, 2014 - 11:31AM