Review of UMD’s 2023 Critical Issues Polls Reveals New Insights on American Public Opinion
A January 2024 report sheds light on the public’s view of former president Donald Trump’s indictment, evolving feelings toward the war in Ukraine, and more
There were multiple iterations of the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll in 2023. A new report provides an in-depth analysis of results from three of these polls; some of which were previously reported, and some that the researchers are releasing for the first time.
Findings shared earlier this year concerned Americans’ fading enthusiasm for taking on the costs associated with supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia (from a March-April 2023 poll); Republican and Democrats’ opinions on the war in Ukraine immediately following the Russian mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group (from a June 2023 poll); and partisan differences regarding the war in Israel and Gaza (from an October 2023 poll).
Newly gleaned insights from the June 2023 poll concern Americans’ views of former president Donald Trump after he was indicted in early June for retaining classified materials after his presidency had ended. According to the Critical Issues Poll’s latest report, two-thirds of respondents to the June 2023 poll said their views of Trump were unaffected by the indictment, and over a quarter (27%) said they viewed Trump less favorably. Republicans were split, with 16% viewing Trump more favorably following the indictment, and 15% viewing him less favorably.
In addition, a majority of all June 2023 poll respondents—including Republicans and Democrats—said Trump’s indictment did not change their intentions of voting either for or against Trump. However, 28% of independents said they were more likely to vote for someone else following the June indictment, compared to 10% who said they were more likely to vote for Trump.
Majorities of White, Black, and Hispanic respondents said the indictment did not change their position on voting for or against Trump. However, 42% of Blacks, 32% of Hispanics, and 24% of White respondents said they would be more likely to vote for someone else following the indictment.
“Although sizable portions of the public have made up their minds, the election is likely to be close so even small swings can make a difference,“ said Professor Michael Hanmer, the director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement and the associate director of the Critical Issues Poll. “It will be very interesting to see how opinions change as the court cases advance.”
A deeper analysis of the June 2023 poll’s results shed light on how different demographics view Zionism, the movement to establish a Jewish nation in what is now Israel, and antisemitism. (Some of the partisan views on Zionism and Anti-Semitism were covered previously.)
More under-35 respondents familiar with Zionism held a negative view of it (38%) than older respondents, 28% of whom said they held a negative view of Zionism. A plurality of both older and younger Americans said they had a neutral impression (49% and 46%, respectively).
Of the 40% of Evangelical Christian respondents who knew about Zionism, 34% said they viewed it positively. That is a 10-percentage point greater share than the total number of respondents who said they viewed Zionism positively (24%).
Black respondents were the largest ethnic/racial group to say they didn’t know what antisemitism was. Among those who did know, Black respondents were still least likely of all racial/ethnic groups to say that attitudes against Jews or Judaism constituted antisemitism.
“It’s certainly surprising that 62% of respondents said they were either unfamiliar with Zionism or didn’t know enough to express opinions of it. More surprising is the fact that about one-third of respondents didn’t know if attitudes toward Jews or Judaism constituted antisemitism,” said Professor Shibley Telhami, director of the Critical Issues Poll.
The new report also provides an update on Americans’ feelings toward the war in Ukraine. Comparing support for Ukraine in the June 2022 poll to the June 2023 poll, willingness to pay the costs of supporting Ukraine has dropped by 12% with regard to respondents’ willingness to endure higher energy costs, and by 10% with regard to seeing increased inflation.
Taking a second look at the poll conducted in October 2023, the researchers also found that among Democrats, support for Ukraine has leveled out to near or below pre-mutiny levels. Nevertheless, Americans (Democrats especially) still want the U.S. to “stay the course” in supporting Ukraine.
“Support for U.S. aid to Ukraine has been a function of two things: the partisan divide in American politics and the public’s assessment of how Ukraine is doing in the war. In the past year, both of these factors have impacted the degree of American public support,” Telhami added.
The main photo is from iStock
Published on Wed, Jan 10, 2024 - 1:24PM