WaPo-UMD Poll Reveals Marylanders' Views on Senate Contenders

Heading into presidential and state primaries in Maryland later in April, the race to be the Democratic Senate nominee looks to be a close one. This information comes from the latest iteration of The Washington Post-University of Maryland Poll.

Respondents indicated that, if the Senate primary was held today and the Democratic candidates were Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen, 44% of likely voters would support Edwards, and 40% of likely voters would support Van Hollen. The results are within the margin of error. View the full poll results.

“The poll results show that this remains a tight race between two candidates that Maryland Democrats know well and regard highly. Each campaign has their work cut out for them to persuade undecided likely voters and ensure their core supporters cast a ballot. A great deal can change between now and April 26, both in terms of the Senate race and the presidential primary race,” said Associate Professor of Government and Politics Michael Hanmer, research director of UMD’s Center for American Politics and Citizenship (CAPC).

Among registered Democrats, 56% said they have a strongly favorable or somewhat favorable impression of Van Hollen; 64% indicated a strongly favorable or somewhat favorable impression of Edwards.

Edwards Leads Among Black, Women Likely Voters

While the contest is close overall, there are large differences in support when looking across race and sex. Edwards leads by wide margins among blacks who are likely to vote and women who are likely to vote, while Van Hollen has large leads among white likely voters and male likely voters.

“In a primary election where there are not significant policy differences among the two leading candidates, identity characteristics will likely play a larger role. This means voters may feel one candidate can relate more on an issue and exert greater effort to implement change, given their respective backgrounds,” said Associate Professor of Government and Politics Stella Rouse, CAPC’s director.

Poll Offers Glimpse into Republican Senate Race

When asked to choose among the Republican candidates for Senate—Richard Douglas, Chrys Kefalas, Joseph Hooe and Kathy Szeliga—15% of likely Republican voters said they would support Szeliga, 11% said they would support Kefalas, 9% said they would support Douglas, and 3% said Hooe. A majority of likely Republican voters did not state a preference.

Read the Washington Post story.

About the Poll

This fifth iteration of The Washington Post-University of Maryland poll was conducted by telephone March 30 through April 3, 2016, among a random sample of 1,503 adult residents of Maryland. Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on both conventional and cellular phones. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points among the sample of 741 registered Democrats, and 5.5 points among the sample of 531 likely Democratic primary voters and 7.5 points among the sample of 274 likely Republican primary voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were conducted by Abt-SRBI, Inc. of New York, NY.

The University of Maryland and The Washington Post first teamed up to present the poll in October 2014. Polls have focused on Maryland elections, desired priorities for elected officials and topics of interest to voters including immigration, taxes, education, and healthcare.

The partnership combines the world-class reporting, polling and public engagement resources of The Post with rigorous academic analysis from the College of Behavioral and Social Sciences’ nationally-renowned Department of Government and Politics. The poll is designed to provide academics, students and members of the public with insight into both key races and the issues that matter to Maryland residents.

In addition to its impact as a public education tool, the poll also represents a unique research opportunity for UMD students. Hanmer and Rouse work with students affiliated with the Center on the design of the poll questions and the analysis of its responses.

The poll is directed by Scott Clement, and UMD alumna Emily Guskin, a polling survey research analyst, for The Post, as well as by Hanmer for the University of Maryland.

Published on Tue, Apr 5, 2016 - 3:26PM