WaPo-UMD Poll Shows Cummings Leading in MD Senate Race

In the Democratic primary race for the U.S. Senate to replace retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski in Maryland, the latest iteration of The Washington Post-University of Maryland poll shows that Elijah Cummings comes out well ahead of declared candidates Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen. All three are sitting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The poll indicates that among those who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, 33% would vote for Representative Cummings, while Representatives Edwards and Van Hollen tie for second at 20%. Since Representative Cummings has not declared whether he is running, the poll also asked those who supported him who they would support if he doesn’t run. In that scenario, Edwards wins many more of Cummings’ supporters than does Van Hollen.

Read the story in The Washington Post.

“In the time until the election a great deal can change. But these results are nothing short of fascinating. Whether Representative Cummings runs or not, this is going to be an interesting and tightly contested race,” said Associate Professor of Government and Politics Michael Hanmer, research director of UMD’s Center for American Politics and Citizenship (CAPC).

CAPC leadership said the poll results run counter to conventional wisdom.

“These results certainly counter the perceived advantage that appeared to initially go to Van Hollen as the establishment-supported candidate. Now it seems that the strength of Baltimore politics is being felt. It will be interesting to see whether these numbers help persuade Cummings to enter the race,” said Associate Professor of Government and Politics and CAPC Director Stella Rouse.

Hogan Democrats

CAPC has also released a research note comparing results from the February 2015, Washington Post-UMD poll to the poll’s latest iteration. CAPC’s analysis shows that while Democrats who voted for Hogan were most likely to say taxes should be the top priority for the legislative session when surveyed in February 2015, they now fall in line with other Democrats in placing education as the top priority.

About the Poll

This third iteration of The Washington Post-University of Maryland poll was conducted by telephone October 8-11, 2015, among a random sample of 1,006 adult residents of Maryland. Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.66 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were conducted by Abt-SRBI, Inc. of New York, NY.

Ahead of recent Democratic presidential hopeful debates, the current iteration of the poll explored Gov. O’Malley’s levels of support within Maryland, as well as current support for the Democratic field overall.

The University of Maryland and The Washington Post first teamed up to present the poll in October 2014, focusing on issues related to the Maryland gubernatorial race, and related issues including immigration, taxes, education, gay marriage and healthcare. The second iteration of the poll in February shed light on what Marylanders thought Gov. Larry Hogan and his administration should prioritize considering tax and expenditure issues—namely, education.

The partnership combines the world-class reporting, polling and public engagement resources of The Post with rigorous academic analysis from the College of Behavioral and Social Sciences’ nationally-renowned Department of Government and Politics, through CAPC. The poll is designed to provide academics, students and members of the public with insight into both key races and the issues that matter to Maryland voters.

In addition to its impact as a public education tool, the poll also represents a unique research opportunity for UMD students. Hanmer and Rouse work with students affiliated with the Center on the design of the poll questions and the analysis of its responses.

The poll is directed for The Washington Post by Peyton Craighill, polling manager, and Scott Clement, a polling survey research analyst, as well as by Hanmer for the University of Maryland.

Published on Fri, Oct 16, 2015 - 10:54AM