Washington Post–UMD Poll Shows Decline in Hogan’s Popularity

While Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has been a popular governor since the Republican first took office in 2015, a recent Washington Post–University of Maryland poll finds that his approval rating has slipped in a tense political climate.

Ahead of the presidential election, Hogan’s job-approval rating in September was 71 percent; this latest poll shows Hogan holding a 65 percent job-approval rating. While this is a decline, Hogan’s approval still remains the highest in Post polls for each of the state’s three previous governors, who were affiliated with both parties.

Among the full sample of respondents, 39 percent said they would support Hogan for reelection in 2018, while 36 percent said they would prefer a Democrat. Among registered voters, 41 percent said they support Hogan for reelection, and 37 percent said they would prefer a Democrat.

The poll results underscore Hogan’s challenge as a Republican governor leading a state that went for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in September.

"Hogan’s decision not to endorse Donald Trump earned him support, but any perceived ties to the president could complicate the governor’s chances at reelection. Even with such high approval ratings, he’s at risk of suffering from what’s going on with the Republican Party,” said Associate Professor Michael Hanmer, research director of the Center for American Politics and Citizenship (CAPC). “His reelection is going to depend on who the Democrats put forward and how much they can attach Hogan to what’s going on in national politics.”

No Democrats have formally declared intention to run for Maryland governor in 2018.

“The election is still a long way off, but I think what happens in national politics and how Governor Hogan does or does not respond is going to matter. In a state with so many more Democrats than Republicans, a general backlash against the Republican Party could propel a Democrat over Governor Hogan, even if his approval rating remains high. This is going to remain very interesting to follow,” Hanmer said.

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About the Poll

This seventh iteration of The Washington Post–University of Maryland poll was conducted by telephone March 16-19, among a random sample of 914 adult residents of Maryland.

Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on both conventional and cellular phones; interviews were conducted in English and in Spanish. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were conducted by Abt-SRBI, Inc. of New York, NY.

The University of Maryland and The Washington Post first teamed up to present the poll in October 2014. Polls have focused on Maryland elections, national elections, desired priorities for elected officials and topics of interest to voters including immigration, taxes, education and healthcare.

The partnership combines the world-class reporting, polling and public engagement resources of The Post with rigorous academic analysis from the College of Behavioral and Social Sciences’ nationally-renowned Department of Government and Politics. The poll is designed to provide academics, students and members of the public with insight into both key races and the issues that matter to Maryland residents.
In addition to its impact as a public education tool, the poll also represents a unique research opportunity for UMD students. Hanmer and Associate Professor Stella Rouse, director of CAPC, work with students affiliated with the Center on the design of the poll questions and the analysis of its responses.

The poll is directed by Washington Post polling manager Scott Clement, and by UMD alumna Emily Guskin (GVPT ’06), the polling analyst, for The Post, as well as by Hanmer for the University of Maryland.

Image courtesy of The Washington Post

Published on Thu, Mar 23, 2017 - 4:06PM